Climate Change, Effect on Agriculture and Food Security in Nepal.

Abstract
Although the production of green house gases such as CO2 gas in Nepal is very less, the country is facing the negative effects of climate change. Agriculture is one of the badly affected sectors in Nepal by climate change. The variation in monsoon behaviour, increased intensity and frequency of soil erosions, drought and flooding, changed hydrological cycle and precipitation variance like effects are caused by climate change. These changes are sure to have implications for future availability. The rise in temperature, which is felt by indigenous people, is sure to decline the yield of staple crops, e.g.rice, etc i.e.C3 crops. Many local varieties of crops have been disappeared from the country giving the sign of deeper starvation in future. These problems have given a time to think about and have raised many questions about food security in Nepal, which is already a food insecure region. What will happen to Nepal when the climate change problem over hits deeply? It is frequently raised question. As CO2 gas in the atmosphere is one causative to climate change, so to reduce the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 in agriculture field, the use of organic manure in soil to produce more yield without CO2 formation is one option but due to oxidation and reduction, carbon will ultimately release to the atmosphere causing detrimental effect to the crop and declining the yield. So one option for safer agricultural yield is a mix of different crops and varieties in one field, which may be reliable farming method to increase resilience to erratic weather changes. Simiarly for food security in Nepal in the climate change condition, the establishment of community seed banks and enhancing the cultivation practices of traditional crops such as sorghum, millet, pumpkins, watermelons can be two major options.
Introduction
Actually, industrial revolution opened the door of development in this earth. After the revolution, many countries have become rich while some others are busy in becoming rich through the industrialization. In the course of development, many positive as well as negative results are seen across the countries. Climate change is one of the negative impacts of the industrial development. It is supposed to be due to anthropogenic activities of human being (Upreti, 1999). In fact, earth is a green house that allows solar radiation to enter from the sun. Some part of the radiation emitted, is absorbed by land, water bodies, some part is utilized by plant during photosynthesis, and some part is returned back. However, the ozone layer is such tat it restores some part of the reflected radiation in the atmosphere. Due to this earth is warm and only living planet in the universe. In the absence of this phenomenon, the average temperature of the earth would have -180c at which life is supposed to be impossible. But during the course of industrialization, the amount of green house gases are increasing and ozone layer is devastating while in the other hand the reflected radiation from the surface of the earth, can not come out of the earth and hence the average warmth is increasing. This phenomenon is called global warming. Global warming and climate change is different thing. Climate is average of the weather of the bigger area over a big period of time.
The change in average status of weather parameters in a bigger area of place a greater period of time is called climate change. "Climate change" this word has become today’s major word. The variation in monsoon behavior, increased intensity and frequency of soil erosions, drought and flooding, changed hydrological cycle and precipitation variance are some of the forms that are seen when climate the change starts of occur. Actually, variation in weather pattern causes variation in agriculture and then causes variation in the living status of the people. It is generally asked is whether it is possible to control the climate change without controlling the today’s living status (stern reviews, economics of climate change).
Temperature trend in Nepal
Various research studies shows that the average temperature of Nepal is increasing and the rate of increase of temperature is greater nowadays than in the previous times and the
of increase of temperature is easily done in Himalayas region than in the Terai region. A study done by (shrestha et.al. in 1992) suggests that the average temperature of Nepal is increasing by 0.060c per year and that in Terai and Himalayas are 0.040c & 0.080c per year. It may be due to solar radiation absorbed by glacial lakes as well as radiation absorbed by land because of snow melting in the Himalayan region
Objectives
This scientific paper is review paper and is presented with all objective of making public, government and international community aware on effect of climate change of agriculture and feed security in Nepal. This review paper also focuses on next better option to mitigate the climate change and on meeting the demands of food of our growing populations rather than saying it should be or that should be.
Methodology
Today’s news becomes incomplete without talking about the climate change, its effect all Nepalese agriculture and food security in Nepal where even districts of Terai, the grain baskets of Nepal are food insecure zone, is a concern of every agriculture students and researchers. In formations, references are collected from published and unpublished matters that are available in the IAAS, Rampur library, Nepal, and websites. Experimental results of amgain's experiment on effect of Co2 and temperature on growth of paddy, wheat, maize is also included.
Trend of total precipitation
In fact, the rainfall pattern is not uniform in Nepal. Some time heavy rainfall occurs and sometimes more drought are seen. It has been found from research paper that in Nepal, the average annual rainfall is increasing by 168 mm and the days of rainfall are decreasing by 0.16 days (LIBRD, 2008). It means heavy rainfall occurs over a short period causing landslides and soil erosion in cultivable land.
According to Baidya and Karmacharya, 200 and, rainfall was recorded minimum in the year 1972, 1977, 1992 and 2005 and maximum in the year 1975, 1985, and 1998 respectively.
Greenhouse gases and agriculture
Carbon dioxide (Co2), nitrous oxide (N2o), CFC, and methane (CH4) are the major green house gases. Among them Co2, N2o and CH4 are the three major gases which contribute about 88% global warming (IPCC, 1996). Among these gases, Co2 is major green house gas affecting agriculture. It is surprising that agriculture is also one of the main source for the production of methane and contribute 17% to the global warming (Man Singh Yogendra, 2007). According to IPCC guidelines, Nepal’s GHG inventory is divided into 5 main categories. Energy activities, industrial works, agriculture, land are change and forestry, and waste management. The national GHG inventory represents emission data for three gases having greenhouse effects Co2, CH4, and N2O.
Co2:- Net emission of Co2 in the country were estimated of 9747 Gg for the base year 1994/1995. The contribution includes the transport sector (31%), industrial sector (27%), residential sector (22%), commercial sector (11%) and the remaining (9%) is shared by Agriculture sector.
CH4: In 1994/95, total methane emissions in Nepal were estimated at 948 Gg. 867 Gg and emission came from agriculture sector. Energy related combustion activities, such as biomass burring, incomplete combustion of fossils fuels had also contributed in methane production.
N2O:- The major source of nitrous oxide emissions in 1994/95 was agriculture soils from where 27 Gg of this gas were released to the atmosphere. In addition, 2 Gg of N2O emission were estimated from manure management for the same year (Shital kafley, 2004).
With increase in amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the rate of photosynthesis of the agriculture crops increases resulting in more yields. That is in normal case but in the condition of today’s climate change, where more Co2 gas in the atmosphere,
accompanied by increase in temperature, results in lower yield (karki, b. Krishna, 2007). It has been found that the yield of all crops will be reduced at 40c temperature rise accompanied by increase in Co2 level.
Another research conducted by amgain et al. 2005 reveals that increments in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 40c decreased rice yield by 34% and wheat yield by 4% as compared to base scenario with current weather data. In that research by increasing 40c for both maximum and minimum temperature along with an increase in solar radiation by 1 MJ/M2/day, rice yield decreased by 32% as and minimum temperatures by 40c and also an increase in Co2 concentration of 335 ppm, the reduction in rice yield was 33%, but in wheat yield was only 3% (Amgain et al. 2005).
Climate change and agriculture
Nepal is an agricultural country. More than 80% of the total peoples are involved in this occupation and contributed 38.15% of the total GDP. Now a day’s country is facing many problems. Variation in monsoon behavior, loss of the fertile soils. Many rivers are in the danger of extinction due to temperature increase. Glaciers like Dixo are burst causing serious damages and many others are considered to be in the condition of burst. In that cause the water for irrigation becomes scarce and the agricultural productivity decreases. Environment ministry secretary Udaya Raj Sharma said the rate of glacial melting in the impoverished Himalayan nation's mountains was higher than initially predicted, and the trend threatened rice and wheat crops. (Climate and south Asia famine, Wednesday sep 2, 2009).
The rising temperature and emission of Co2 to some extent is helpful. Introduction of crops for example:- increase in agricultural crops production by enhancing photosynthetic processes, water use efficiency, shortening physiological period and soil microbial activities. But it has many severe negative effects also which are decrease in grain filling period due to increase in respiration process, fertilizer use efficiency, shift in agriculture use, reduced nutrient in grain due to over respiration, increase in evapotranspiration. The main impact on agriculture is that due to climate change, the increase in productive land in some area and decrease in other region (Pathak 2003a) are found. In case of Nepal, the agricultural productive lands in Terai region are becoming less due to drought and a precipitation variance while the increase in agricultural lands are seen in Himalayas.
Evidences of climate change in Nepal and Nepalese agriculture
General
• Twelve warmest years since 1975 to 2007
• Late or pre monsoon, unusual precipitation, decreasing rainy days and intense rainfall events caused more runoff and low groundwater recharge.
• Extreme fog conditions have recently been observed in the terai regions.
• Traditional rainfall of Jestha and Ashar has been shifted in Shrawan and Bhadra. It has decreased paddy production.
Agriculture
• Eastern terai rain deficit in the year 2005/2006 by early monsoon and crop production reduced by 12.5% on the national basis. Nearly 10% of agro-land were left fallow due to rain deficit but mid western terai faced heavy rain with floods, which reduced production by 30% in the year (Regmi, 2007).
• Early maturity of crops due to increase in temperate may help to have more crops in the some crop cycle (NARC) animal report.
• Shifting of climatic zones has been observed in the country. Extinction of national vegetation. Local basmati rice varieties, some local wheat, maize, and other varieties are observed.
􀁺Cold wave in Nepal in 1997/98 had negative impacts on agricultural productivity and showed reduction in the production of crops by 27.8, 36.5, 11.2, 30, 37.6 and 38% in potato, toria, sarson, rayo, lentil and chickpea respective (NARC annual reports from 1987/88 to 1997/98)
Food security
Food security is defined as the access to have food at any time and at any place. Food security is not defined only as to have food but also to have food that is full of nutrients. The world food summit, convened in 1996, in 2002 by the FAO of the United Nation in Rome, highlighted the basic right of all people to all adequate diet, and need for concerted action among all countries to achieve this goal in a sustainable manner. How vulnerable households regions and countries are to climate change's impacts on
agriculture will depend on their access to land, water and government support and action: - the BLS, (the world food trade model) estimated that in 1980 there were about 500 million people risk of hunger in 2060has been estimated at 640 mllion. however, with unmitigated. , Declines in yields in low attitude regions [where many developing countries are located] are projected require to imports large amount of cereals. The number of hungry people in developing countries will increase by~1%for any 2-2.5%increase in prices. This means the number of peoples at risk of hunger grows by 10-60%in the scenarios tested, resulting an estimated increase of 60 to 350 million people in this condition( Rosenburgh,C. and M.L. Parry,1994)
A report released in this September, 2009 by British aid agency Oxfam, warned million Nepalese face severe food shortages because of climate change it said changing weather pattern- extremes temperatures, drier winters and delays in summer monsoon–have drastically affected crop production already, leaving farmers unable to properly feed themselves and pushing them to debt. An estimated 3.4 million people in karnali zone people face heavy starvation and this continues for 8-9 months in 12 months similarly other districts are also swimming in the lack of food .so future of Nepal is dangerous when heavy decline in grain production occurs.
A study done by t6he team of Purdue university reveals that due to climate change more peoples in the developing countries will be in hunger than the peoples in the developed countries. In that study,16 developing countries were considered and found that Zambia, Bangladesh and Mexico university will be in danger. That happens because due to climate change, the productivity of crop decreases and the price of the grain increase and the poor peoples of the developing countries like Nepal, whose population occupies a major percentage of the total country population cannot buy food and hence they emerge in the danger of hunger.
Adaptation
􀁺 Plantation of crops like sorghum, sugarcane, maize (C4)crops
Most plants including trees and flowering plants produce PGA as the first step product in the photosynthesis. A few plant species including tropical grasses such as sugarcane and maize produce malic acid or aspartic acid as the first product. The molecules of these compounds contain 4 carbon atoms and one nitrogen atom similar molecular structure only the difference is addition of C and N.Because the initial products of photosynthesis for plants in this category involve compounds four carbon atoms, this class is called C4.Trhe other category of plants produce PGA, which contains three carbon atoms, so it is called C3.This classification is important because the responses of the two categories of plants to increased CO2 are different. The direct effect of an increase in CO2 over the years, there have been numerous laboratory experiments, which conclude that increased level of CO2 result in increased plant growth, no matter how that plant growth is quantified. The effects of an enriched atmospheric CO2 on crop productivity in large measures as positive, leaving little doubt as the benefits for global food security. Now after more than a century, and with the confirmation of thousands of scientific reports CO2 gives most remarkable response of all nutrients in the plant bulk, is usually in short supply, and is nearly always limiting for photosynthesis.
About 95 percent of all plants on the earth are of type C3.C4 crops constitute only 1.Among others the C4 crops includes sugarcane, corn, sorghum, millet that are commercially significant. The other 4 percentages of plants are not economically significant and include plants such as cactus.
As C4 plants can tolerate temperatures and CO2 compensation point is higher t6han C3 plants, so the Governments of the countries should try the commercial plantation of the crops like sugarcane and the grains of rice, wheat can be bought by selling these crops. So that population under the danger of feed hungry can be minimized and poverty can be eradicated by the commercialization of these C4 crops.
􀁺 Plantation of wild crops that are tolerant to extremities of weather such as rye, millets, etc.
􀁺Establishment of community based seed bank for food security.
Due to climate change, the period of drought is increasing. In Nepal, the farming type is still primitive type and the history of modern agriculture is not very long. Population s increasing. In case of Nepal, only 17 percentage of the total land is cultivable and rainfall is highly variable. Access to irrigation is poor. Soils are of low fertility, hindered by rocks and stones in hilly region which occupies major portion of the total area (42%).There is a strong link between sustainable food production and seed accessibility, especially in case of climate change due to which rainfall amount is decreasing. Actually, community seed banks must be based on groups of people, in a community. Each member contributes to the bank with deposits of seed of each variety they grow. At planting season, members withdraw part of their own deposit and the reminder is used by the group for income generation. So the establishment of seed generates bank income in the community for the community. All seed is checked for quality. Training needs for groups waiting to run seed banks includes leadership skills and group development. Training also covers technical aspects of seed production and storage.
The seed banks enable community members to gain access to seeds at the right time enhancing food security. The establishment of seed bank can conserve the primitive varieties of crops that are tolerant to variable climate pattern and awareness on seed security arises.
Additional benefits include income generation through the seed bank and the income can be invested for the development of other infrastructures in the community. For the establishment of seed bank training should be conducted which include.
􀁺Selection of most suitable varieties of seed for banking.
􀁺Seed crop husbandry to enable farmers to provide sufficient seeds for their community: planting, soil fertility, pests, diseases, and weeds.
􀁺Seed harvesting and processing.
􀁺 Post harvest management of seed.
Implementation
􀁺Formed by groups of peoples in a community.
􀁺 Each member should deposit two portions of each variety of crops they grow, one portion for their own use, one for group. The group can use its portion for income generation.
􀁺The group seeks other seeds from local seed keepers to conserve local seed diversity.
􀁺Seed for storage should be of top quality, clean, dry pest and mould free.
􀁺Records are kept of varieties.
Crop rotation for reducing the risk of climate change on farm level
Crop rotation is a planned order of crop sequence on the same piece of land over time. The purpose of a rotation is to increase the average profit from the land by selecting a cropping sequence that has more additive than non-additive benefits. Farmers who are inclined to pay little or no attention to rotations say the seasons are too variable due to climate change ad the choice of crops is too limited. While climate, soils do limit choice of crops; benefits can still be gained from well-planned rotations (Helm L.James, 2006).
Climate change imposes several limitations on choice of crops
􀁺Growing season
􀁺Precipitation; It is variable and usually limited.
􀁺Temperature: -Both soil and air temperatures change and have their effect on crop choices.
Profits of crop rotations in case of climate change
􀁺 Judicious use of soil nutrient:-Early maturing crops allow moisture accumulation after harvest while late maturing, deep rooted crops may leave very little nutrients reserve for the next crop.
􀁺 Weed control:-Weed problem is a serious problem and the infestation of new serious weeds are seen. Crop rotation prevents weed seed production. The practice of delayed seeding is often used to permit weed emergence. Fall rye included in the rotation, especially on summer fallow, is an effective control practice for wild oat and other weeds due to the competitive ability of rye. Perennial grasses and legumes grown for several years and pastured or cut for hay or silage are also good weed control crops.
􀁺Soil productivity:-The green house gases such as CO2 fastens the growth of the plant rapidly but in happening so, reduction of soil nutrient occurs. However, if we practice crop rotations, it increases soil nutrients. Crop rotations including legume leaves nitrogen in the soil and by incorporating the legume plant the organic carbon in soil increases.
􀁺Wind and water erosion: -Can be reduced by practices such as strip cropping, contour farming and terraces. Rotations can also help when added to these practices. Cropping practices and tillage method are probably more important than rotations for erosion control. Where water erosion is serious, the field or area should be seeded to a permanent sod. Where wind erosion is a serious, plant residue and vegetative barriers are tools to use.
Conclusion
Climate change is real and underway, so there is a need of impact identification and adaptation to cope with the vulnerabilities in agricultural sector. Nepal being least developed countries, it is moving towards more vulnerable situation due to climate change. Agricultural sector is badly affected, the costs of foods are increasing, and the population that is in danger of hunger is changing due to extremities in climate. Due to climate change and global warming, the crops that are produced on our land is not as nutritious as in normal case giving sign of malnutrition of our Childs, who are the future of countries. What will be the future of Nepal, when its future pillars are suffering from malnutrition due to shortages of nutrition in crops due to climate change? So the Government of the countries should rapidly bring adaptation packages including crop diversification, plantation of local C4 crops varieties and establishment of seed bank so that food security can be achieved by opening many doors of income generations.
References
􀁺 (Amgain et.al 2005): -L.P.Amgain, N.R.Devkota, J.T, Timsina, Bijay Singh, Journal of Institute of Agriculture and Animal Science,
􀁺District of Tharaka District of Kenya, article, Community seed banks-improved food security.
􀁺Helm.L.James, 2006-Extension Agronomist, North Dakota University. Article name-Crop rotations for profit in North Dakota.
􀁺Karki.B.Krishna, 2008: -The journal of Agriculture and Environment, page 54-61..
􀁺LIBIRD,2008:-LIBird,annual reports,2008,page 1-4.
􀁺Malla, G, 2008: -The journal of Agriculture and Environment, Page 62-71.
􀁺Man Singh Yogendra, 2007: -Evidences of climate change in Nepal, Journal of Institute of Agriculture, and Animal Science,
􀁺Pathak, et al., 2003; -Climate potential and on farm yield trends of rice and wheat in the indo Gangentic plains field crops, Re, 80:223-224.
􀁺Regmi, H.R.2007;-Effect of unusual weather on cereal crops production and household food security. The journal of Agriculture and Environment,pp20-29.
􀁺Rosenburgh,c. and M.L. Parry,1994;-Potential impact of climate change on worlds food supply.
􀁺Article of Shital Kafley
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