ABSTRACT
The climate change includes variation in monsoon behavior, increased intensity and frequency of soil erosions, drought and flooding, changed hydrological cycle and precipitation variance. As agriculture is dependent upon weather parameters, the negative effects of climate change are seen on daily agriculture operations. Due to the loss of fertile lands of the earth, the production of food grains are decreasing resulting in the increase in the price of the food grains. On the other hand due to the increase in the amount of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere, the nutrient content in the food grains are reported to be decreased. So what will happen in the earth until 2050 is a matter of common interest. Both the peoples of both developing and developed countries are sure to lose their food by certain amount by 2050 and the food they get will have no more nutrient as it should contain. Although the effects are seen to be watched globally but poor regions like South Asia and Africa are sure to be emerged in the pond of famine by 2050, 25 million more children are expected to go hungry as climate change leads to food crisis.
Literature
The industrial revolution has opened the many doors of development. Many countries are developed and many are busy in being developed countries. It has many positive aspects and negative aspects also. Climate change is supposed to be due to anthropogenic activities of human beings (Uptreti, 1999). Climate change has affected many sectors and agriculture is also one of the sectors. Agriculture is closely related to human beings as the food to feed human being comes through agricultural operations. Due to the climate change, fertile soils are removed due to flood, landslides. The shifting of agricultural region has also been reported. While describing about Nepal, LiBIRDS, 2008 reports that the days of rainfall are decreasing by 0.16 days and the average amount of rainfall is increasing by 168mm. This phenomenon has direct effect on production of food. Climate change is real and underway. The effects of climate change will be more in developing countries than in developed countries. Due to change in climate, the adapting behavior of crops to a certain environment is decreasing and this has resulted in the extinction of many varieties of crops. Due to the melting of glacier lakes and rise in sea level, the delta region of Vietnam and the fertile area of Bangladesh are also being destroyed. This obviously seems to be difficult to get food in future life. In case of climate change, the poorest countries of Africa e.g. Kenya, Zimbabwe and other countries like Nepal, Bhutan, which are already dependent upon other countries for feeding own citizen, seems to make them more dependent upon other countries for importing foods. Due to the melting of glacier lakes in Nepal, the cultivation of rice and wheat are decreasing. (Oxfam report, climate and south Asia famine, Sep 2, 2009).
Due to climate change, the food production will be less. In the countries where already the price of food is high, the more increase in price of food may cause social violence. This type of violence is proving to appear in the poor countries like Zimbabwe and Nepal where the inflation of money is higher. A report released by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggested that twenty-five million more children will go hungry by the middle of this century. The children of 2050 will have fewer calories to eat than those in 2000. In the countries, where adequate injection of funds and new technology are not available, wheat yields could fall by more than 30%, setting off a catastrophic rise in prices. Wheat prices, with unmitigated climate change, could rise by 170%-194% by the middle of this century. Rice prices are projected to rise by 121% and almost all of the increase will have to pass on to the poor consumers poor countries (IFPRI Report). According to the same report, people in both the developing and developed countries will have to less to eat by 2050 if climate change is not seriously addressed, through the short fall will be relatively slight in richer countries.
In 2050
• The calories available for each person in industrialized nations will fall from 3,450 in 2000 to about 3,200.
• In developing countries overall, the average will fall from 2,696 to 2,410 calories.
• In sub-Saharan Africa, people will on average have only 1,924 calories a day, compared with 2,316 in 2000.
In this condition, there can be social violence for the gain of food. If the climate change is not seriously addressed, we can not say it is not possible the arrival of time, when on man kills other man for killing his hungry. So climate change also creates negative effect on
human security. The BLS (The world food trade model) estimated that in 1980 there were about 500 million people at risk of hunger, in 2060 it has been estimated to be 640 million, however with unmitigated climate change it has been estimated to be at 700 million. Declines in yields in low altitude regions (where many developing countries are located) are projected require to imports large amount of cereals. The number of hungry people in developing countries will increase by 1% for any 2-2.5% in increase in prices. This means the number of peoples at risk of hunger grows by 10-60% in the scenarios tested, resulting an estimated increase of 60 to 350 million people in this condition (Rosenburgh, C & M.L. Parry, 1994).
A study done by the team of Purdue University reveals that due to climate change more peoples in the developing countries will be in hunger than the peoples in the developed nations. In that study, 16 developing countries were considered and found that Zambia, Bangladesh and Mexico will be in danger. That happens because due to the climate change, the productivity of the crops decreases, the price of the grain increase and the poor peoples of the developing countries like Somalia, Nepal whose population occupies a major percentage of the total country population can not buy food and hence creates insecurity in society.
Adaptation
By 2050, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be increased by too much and the climate change will also seriously affect the food production in global level. Carbon sequestration in agriculture land can be one option but in doing so the deficiencies in the amount of other nutrient occurs such as nitrogen so the farm level adaptation to increase food available can be
• Plantation of crops like sorghum, sugarcane, maize (Cu) crops as these plants have more Co2 compensation points.
• Plantation of wild crops that are tolerant to extremities of weather such as rye, millets etc. So that no one should be bounded to die by hunger.
• Establishment of community based seed bank for food security.
• Crop rotations for reducing the risk of climate change on farm level so that maximum benefits and food grains can be achieved from land in adverse condition. (Helm.L... James, 2006).
Conclusion
Climate change is real and underway, so there is a need of impact identification and adaptation to cope with vulnerabilities in agricultural sector. Agricultural sector is badly affected by climate change and the costs of foods are increasing. Due to unaddressed climate change and global warming, the crops that will be produced on the land will not be as nutritious as in normal case giving signs of malnutrition of our child, who are the future of the world. If the climate change remains unaddressed, the 25 millions more children will be hungry and this is sure to raise the question about social security. So the concerned organizations should rapidly bring adaptation packages including crop rotation, plantation of local C4 crops varieties and establishment of seed bank to provide food for increased population because by 2050, the population on the earth is expected to be increased by 50%.
References
• Helm L. James, 2006:- Extension Agronomist, North Dakota University. Article Name: - Crop Rotations for Profit in North Dakota.
● IFPRI Report.2009
• LiBIRD, 2008:- LiBIRD, Annual Report 2008, Page 1-4.
• Oxfam Report, Climate and South Asia Famine Released in September 2, 2009.
• Research Article by Purdue University, USA.
• Rosenburgh C. and M.L. Parry, 1994:- Potential Impact of Climate Change on Worlds Food Supply.
• Upreti, 1999:- The Nepalese Journal of Agriculture and Environment
ACRONYMS
LIBIRD : Local Development Initiatives for Biodiversity Research
IFPRI : International Food Policy Research Institutepoorest
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